A statistical analysis of landfast sea ice breakout events at the northern floe edge of Admiralty Inlet, Nunavut

In the spring, Inuit travel across landfast ice to the northern floe edge in Admiralty Inlet to hunt. During this time, the floe edge can be unstable, and floes can break free (I.e., breakout) from landfast ice, stranding hunters on mobile ice floes. To assess this risk, a climatology of breakout events from 2000-2020 was developed, which revealed that first events in the spring now occur 46 days earlier and 6-7 more of these events now occur each year than two decades ago. Point-biserial correlations between past breakout events and meteorological variables from ECMWF's reanalysis dataset (ERA5) were calculated to explore potential associations. These yielded weak (|r| = 0.06-0.12) yet significant relationships to winds, rainfall, and snowfall. A logistic regression model to predict breakout timing outperformed climatology but had low skill. In situ observations of breakout events and environmental conditions near the floe edge are recommended to improve prediction.